This paper starts with a critical review of possible costs and gains from joining the euro zone as presented in the literature. Next, it assesses the applicability, coherence and reasonability of the theory of optimum currency areas. This analysis leads to a negative conclusion concerning the theoretical guidance in the process of making the decision to join the euro zone. Moreover, empirical observation does not provide clear solutions, either.

These remarks constitute the context for the presentation of a suggested strategy for Poland of joining the monetary union. This strategy is not only to meet the Maastricht criteria but it is intended to promote a rational decision under uncertainty so that the euro - when introduced in Poland - is not a source of economic tension and costs.

  Adam Koronowski - Uncertainty about its Effects and the Decision to Join the Euro-zone - plik pdf; (149 KB)