In this paper, we propose to extend the standard analysis of rationality of expectations expressed in business tendency surveys by taking consequences of item non-response into consideration. We describe direct approach to measurement of expectations, discuss survey non-response problem, provide theoretical framework for the test of rationality of expectations and extended analysis of survey data, and conduct empirical analysis. Our major finding is that expectations of Polish entrepreneurs concerning general economic situation are not formed rationally; and that our results continue to hold independently from the imputation method, and consequently from the real values of the missing item data.

Keywords: tendency surveys, qualitative data, contingency tables, item non-response, rationality of expectations, general economic situation
JEL: C10, C42, D84

  Barbara Kowalczyk, Emilia Tomczyk - Rationality of Expectations of Industrial Enterprises - Analysis Based on Business Tendency Surveys with Item Non-response - plik pdf; (293 KB)