The aim of the paper is to quantitatively assess the impact of globalization on the economy of Poland in the medium term. Four channels of the impact of globalization are distinguished: (i) trade openness, (ii) productivity improvement, (iii) labour migrations, (iv) liberalization of the services sector. We employ a computable general equilibrium model with multiple industries and households and imperfect competition features. Our results show positive and quite significant effects of globalization on the performance of the Polish economy, stemming mainly from productivity improvements and liberalization of services. The sizeable expected migrations result in negative effects of globalization by decreasing growth potential and causing upward pressure on wages. At the sectoral level, globalization is particularly beneficial to some exporting sectors and skilled segments of the labour market.

Keywords: globalization, computable general equilibrium, labour migrations, trade liberalization
JEL: C68 F15 F22

  Michał Gradzewicz, Jan Hagemejer, Zbigniew Żółkiewski - Globalization and the Polish Economy: Stylized Facts and Simulations using a Computable General Equilibrium Model - plik pdf; (264 KB)