The paper attempts to identify the key macroeconomic determinants of premiums on emerging equity markets. The emerging market premium has been defined as the measurement of the relative economic climate on emerging equity markets. The author has analysed the impact of decisions of the American central bank on the level of the emerging market premium. He has also researched into the macroeconomic determinants of the emerging market premium fluctuations within the 4-year presidential election cycle in the USA, and presented the basic components of the positive and negative emerging market premium models. As follows from the research, the emerging markets are an attractive segment of the global equity market. Rates of return on indices describing the economic climate on the emerging markets are higher, in the long term, than the corresponding rates of return on mature markets. The ratio of the capitalization level of a given market to the GDP is the most important measurement used in the assessment of the maturity of an equity market, which allows a division into the emerging and mature markets. The emerging market premium is a particularly interesting measure of relative economic climate on the emerging markets. Monetary policy of the American central bank has a strong influence on the shaping of the emerging market premium. A reduction in the discount rate by the Fed contributes to a growth in the emerging market premium, whereas a rise contributes to a drop in the premium level, both within 12 months from the taking of a given decision. The character of relations between macroeconomic variables and the emerging market premium level may be considered from three perspectives: the anticipating, the current, and the discounted perspective. Three variables, i.e. the real short-term interest rate, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the annual rate of change in manufacturing output are of considerable importance in forecasting the future level of the emerging market premium. Both statistical and econometric methods have been used in the research.
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