This paper discusses the possibility of a currency crisis occurring in Poland after its accession to the European Union. The discussion is based on the experience of highly developed and developing countries which is connected to financial market disturbances. The primary objective of the paper is to indicate unfavourable phenomena present in the Polish economy which are analogous to those that contributed to crises in the countries discussed. Selected comparisons are made in regard to the crisis of the European Monetary System (1992-1993), the East Asian crisis (1997-1998) and the collapse experienced by Argentina (2000-2001).

For the past fifteen years one could primarily observe an upward pressure on the zloty that was linked to the inflow of foreign direct investment, privatisation and the appeal of the rapidly growing Polish free market economy. The prospect of joining the European Union significantly contributed to a decrease in investment risk. On the other hand, problems with controlling public debt and maintaining central budget balance (partly caused by Poland's accession to the European Union) are becoming evident. They may be the main cause of difficulty in maintaining the zloty exchange rate within ERM II. An additional problem is the high proportion of liabilities at risk within gross liabilities from the non-financial sector as well as the deteriorating structure of Poland's foreign debt and its repayment schedule. Lack of reform in the public sector and conditions for business development, which is the primary driving force in economic growth, may significantly hamper and delay the introduction of the common euro currency in Poland.