The paper attempts to answer the question of the importance of financial markets in the process of transmitting decisions on monetary policy. To that effect the impact of movements in the reference interest rate on movements in market interest rates, foreign exchange rates and selected stock exchanges indices in Poland has been studied. Theoretical relations between the examined financial variables have been presented and three econometric models explaining those relationships have been proposed. Empirical results point at a meaningful impact of the movement in reference interest rate on movements in short-term market interest rates. Long-term interest rates, the exchange rate of the zloty to the dollar and the most important stock exchange indices, tend not to exhibit, over reactions to fluctuations in the reference rate, at least in a short run. Results obtained in the paper correspond to results of similar calculations carried out for developed countries. They support the thesis of limited practicality of reference rate in developing certain economic processes in a short run, , for instance, fluctuations in the exchange rate. Investors, who in advance know about the contemplated change in the level of reference interest rate by the Monetary Policy Council, may gain above-average profits on the money market only.
|