Dariusz Starnowski Statistical Provisions and their Influence on Economic Cycles in the Banking Sector - the Spanish Experience
Among the subjects widely discussed by economists are the reasons for the occurrence of economic cycles, the factors which strengthen or weaken them, and the role of domestic and international institutions in reducing their negative impact. Very important for deepening and accelerating the phases of a cycle are the activities undertaken by financial institutions, particularly in their lending activities and making special purpose reserves. In June 2000, the Central Bank of Spain pioneered a solution to the classification of credits and the establishment of special purpose reserves, which balances strong procyclical behaviours in lending activities of financial institutions. New statistical provisions were introduced to supplement the the previous system of provisions, to lessen the impact of economic cycles on financial results of the banking sector, as well as to enhance the effectiveness of risk management in banks. Statistical provisions serve to cover future anticipated credit portfolio losses of a bank and can be compared to technical reserves of insurance companies, held to cover future losses on insurance payments. Statistical provisions grow when economic growth is observed. They are reduced during recession when some of the resources are transferred to a special purpose reserves fund. This leads to even distribution of income derived from lending activities and to the "smoothing out" of the profits.
The newly introduced regulation anticipates two methods of generating the statistical provisions. The perfect is the situation when banks employ their own internal models, approved by banking supervision authorities. They feed from the bank's experience in the estimation of anticipated credit portfolio losses, with regard to the quality of different types of borrowers, to the types of collateral and possibilities to make use of them, and to the lifetime of a credit agreement. Banks usually use the standard approach based on a set of multipliers established by the banking supervision authorities. The standard model consists of six risk categories of various weights. These weights are multiplied by total credit exposure in a given category. The categories reflect differences in the risk level in a given credit portfolio. Statistical provisions are transferred to the fund whose maximum value is limited. Resources accumulated in the fund are used to eliminate the sudden profit decrease effect resulting from the deteriorating quality of a credit portfolio. Hence, a bank's Profit and Loss Account better reflects its actual financial situation.
|