Adam Koronowski, Marek Rozkrut Towards the Euro-zone through the ERM II Countering Fallacies
This paper sheds light on and, subsequently, rebuts the arguments often quoted by the opponents of the early euro-zone enlargement. In particular, the issues of overheating, structural and real convergence are touched upon. Next, the exchange rate mechanism II (ERM II) is scrutinized, with a special focus on its susceptibility to capital flows disturbances. In this part, credibility of the ERM II framework, its disciplining role and flexibility are dealt with. Moreover, adjustment mechanism of this exchange rate regime is set against alternative options, a floating exchange rate system and a currency union in particular. Against this background the dispute over whether the ERM II should serve as a "useful framework" or merely a "waiting room" is settled, with the latter view deemed to correspond more closely with the facts. This is followed by the list of the ambiguities to be cleared up and indeed feasible amendments to this framework - the measures aimed at making the "waiting room" a more useful solution. The final section concludes.
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