Adam Kot Methods of quantitative assessment of monetary and fiscal conditions and policy mix in acceding countries
Due to the existence of certain trends in the development of the real exchange and interest rates in the countries due to enter the EU, a quantitative assessment of monetary and fiscal conditions carried out in these countries by means of methods used in the developed economies provides unreliable results. The paper presents an alternative method to determine the indices for the monetary condition indicator (MCI) based on the deviation of real effective exchange rate (REER) and the interest rate from the existing trends. This allows the elimination of the increasing trends in the indices, which might suggest a more rigid policy, as well as the temporary leaps primarily caused by the statistical effect of the reference base. In addition, the paper deals with methods of determining the monetary policy conditions index, the policy mix index and a policy mix map, and emphasises the potential problems which may arise in connection with the interpretation of these data.
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