Adam Lipowski
Conditions of Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis



The author discusses the findings of a research designed to verify theory-based convictions concerning the conditions of sustained economic growth, as reflected in the basic macroeconomic indicators. These convictions are confronted with empirical evidence involving three pairs of countries, each from a different region, each comprising a higher - and a lower - growth country. The countries in question are Ireland vs. Greece, South Korea vs. the Philippines, and Chile vs. Argentina. However, international comparisons play only a subsudiary role to intertemporal comparisons focusing on the higher-growth country from each pair. It appears that the passage from low to high long-term growth in Ireland, South Korea and Chile (in the 80s and 90s respectively) was accompanied by a rise in the savings and investment rates (except for Ireland), lower inflation and unemployment levels, increased foreign trade in relation to the GDP, a lower share of the government budget in the GDP (both on the side of tax revenues and government expenditure) and a reduction in the fiscal deficit. These findings remain roughly in line with what most economic schools would predict for extended growth periods. Less expectedly, foreign trade and current account deficits were reduced in those periods, while the real exchange rate appreciated.

The case of Ireland's dynamic long-term GDP growth (1989-1995) commands special attention. Average inflation fell from 7.2% to 2.9%, while unemployment fell only slightly (from 15.3% to 14.2%). These data indicate that seven years of uninterrupted growth at the rate of over 6% were not sufficient to reduce unemployment in any significant way. (This started as late as 1997).

Moreover, the period of high growth in Ireland was marked by a significant reduction of the state's redistributive role in the economy, reflected in tax cuts and a reduction in government expenditure. This resulted in an improved budget position (the deficit fell to 2.2% from 9.9% of the GDP).


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