Wojciech Bijak, Mariusz Smętek
Detection Capability of Early Warning Systems of Selected Countries vs. Credit Rating Agencies with Respect to Insurance Companies of the Second Sector



The paper presents a comparative research of various ratio-based appraisal systems of the financial standing of insurance companies. The systems covered include the PUNU's (Polish Insurance Supervision Office) SWO test, QST (Quick Solvency Test) applied in the UK, FAST (Financial Analysis Tracking System) recommended by the American NAIC, IRIS (Insurance Regulatory Information System), in use in the USA since the 70s, the Singaporean EWS (Early Warning System), S.I.A.P (Sistema de Indicadores de Analisis Preferente) from Spain and PIR (Public Information Rating ) - a set of indicators used by Standard & Poor's.

Given the differences in the reporting and accounting standards of insurance companies in the different countries, it is difficult to find, for the purposes of the research, a selection of ratios closely matching the set of ratios originally employed by the systems analysed. The paper presents a description of those systems alongside a possible selection of ratios obtainable in Poland.

The empirical research is based on the data for 2nd sector insurance companies operating in Poland. The ratio values covered are those from the period between the third quarter of 1997 and the third quarter of 2000 inclusive.

The findings of the research presented in the paper relate to the detective capability of the respective early warning systems (ratio analysis systems). The correlation of ratings ascribed to companies by the different system has been analysed, as well as the consistence, across those systems, in classifying companies into categories, particularly the "threatened" category. The research confirmed the independence of the ratings, as well as the accuracy of the assessment. Additionally, the warning time horizon has been analysed, i.e. the length of the period of uninterrupted negative rating granted to a company prior to its bankruptcy.

The research confirms the usefulness of a statistical approach in determining the critical values for the ratios. This approach has an important role in assessing the financial position of companies operating in young, developing insurance markets or markets under heavy structural changes.

The research indicates that the different early warning systems, based on different sets of financial ratios, lead to similar conclusions as to the financial health of insurance companies. This is because the systems usually to relate to the entire activity of the company, even though the emphasis on the respective elements varies.


Copyright © 1998-2025 Narodowy Bank Polski. All rights reserved.
This site uses cookies to ensure its more efficient operation.
To find out more about the cookie technology, please click here: NBP Privacy Policy »
In order to browse through the content, it is necessary to accept cookies from this site Accept