Elżbieta Machowicz
The impact of unemployment on the amount of bank deposit money



In her paper, the author considers factors affecting the level of national savings. She departs from the proposition that a serious downturn in the labour market affects the propensity to consume. With reference to this, the author has conducted appropriate statistical research. By means of correlation and regression analysis, she has proved the existence of a very strong negative correlation between unemployment rate and the level of persons' domestic deposits in the period 1996-1998. An increase in unemployment - all other factors relevant to the propensity to consume held constant - resulted, on average, in a matching reduction in the level of persons' zloty deposits at banks. The fluctuations in the amount of these deposits can be accounted for by changes in unemployment rate. The relationship, described in the paper both in terms of impact and shape with respect to random samples (the Szczecin and Koszalin voivodships) has confirmed the existence of a similar link for the general population (nationwide). With reference to the entire country, a 1% increase in the share of the unemployed in the total workforce results in an average 9,690 m zloty slip in personal zloty deposits. In the period under review, the changes in the level of persons' domestic deposits can be traced to a great measure (81%) to the changes in the unemployment rate. Only very simple statistical methods were utilised to determine the impact of unemployment rate on the level of personal savings. It is therefore difficult to fully ascertain the existence of a strong negative relationship, let alone forecast its future development. Only an appropriate research programme and data adjusted by the application of adequate deflators would allow for a more detailed analysis of the issue. Thus the paper should be seen as an encouragement aimed at research centres to investigate the relationship further.

The paper comprises two basic parts. Part one presents the role of domestic savings in the national economy, focusing on personal zloty deposits at banks. Part two highlights the results of the statistical analysis, barely outlining the technical side of the research (the methodology of the statistical analysis was developed by J. Hozer).


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