The 1998 systemic changes relating to monetary policy allowed the authorities to formulate a new strategy. The choice of this strategy was basically restricted to the "traditional" strategies, based on intermediate goals (money supply and exchange rate control) and the "multi-dimensional" ones (mainly inflation strategy).

Inflation strategy seems the best possible choice. The only rational alternative is further control of money supply. In practice, the difference between the two boils down to how the specific policies are explained to the public. However, inflation strategy ensures better credibility for monetary policy. With it in place, the authorities are able to present the policy exactly as it is exercised. Besides, in the event of certain shocks, the central bank cannot achieve both its intermediate and long-term goals. Exchange rate control cannot be recommended either: while it does not warrant sustained disinflation, it involves high costs and a risk of crisis. A safe "tying" of the exchange rate can only be achieved through participation in a monetary union and will not be substituted by either a currency board or the so-called unilateral euro introduction.

The implementation of inflation strategy runs up against many problems, the first of them posed by the fact that there are no reliable models (this problem concerns any strategy). Others include a high degree of openness of the economy and the need to reduce inflation in the medium term. Given all these, it seems that a more flexible policy, achieved through the emphasis on the medium term target, will deliver better effects. At the same time, the annual inflation targets expressed as a band should be abandoned in favour of one-figure reference values reflecting the best forecast available. These should remain in compliance with the Budget Bill assumptions. This would allow for less volatile responses to exchange rate and supply shocks. As the authorities go ahead with the changes, an extensive information campaign should be directed at the public. It should include a research into the probability of reaching the medium-range inflationary target under different scenarios of macroeconomic development and fiscal policy, whose results should be made public.