Piotr Boguszewski, Andrzej Kocięcki
Selected aspects of enterprise behaviour in response to monetary policy - based on surveys and GUS statistical data



The paper presents an analysis of selected transmission channels of monetary policy impulses to the enterprise sector. The relevant theoretical models are also outlined. The empirical part is based on the data provided in - as of 1993 - the individual F-01 forms (for approx. 25,000 economic agents) and F-02 forms (for around 80,000 agents), collected by the GUS and not revealing detailed debt structure. The aggregated GUS data are also utilized, as well as the findings of a survey conducted by the NBP in around 300 firms. The analysis of the data reveals many obstacles to monetary policy impact on companies. In terms of research into transmission channels in Poland, these barriers pose serious methodological problems. The barriers consist mainly in: a high sectoral credit concentration, a rather low proportion of borrowers in the population, the widespread phenomenon of domestic credit "substitution", including considerable proportion of foreign currency credit. The analysis, based on a simple logit model, indicates a change in companies' loan-incurring patterns in the period in question. It also confirms the positive relationship, observable in the developed countries, between the size of the enterprise and its level of debt attributable to bank loans. The results provided by the model comply with the data on enterprises' indebtedness structure, presented in the paper.

Apart from the above, the empirical part strives to determine the extent to which exchange and interest rates influence real industrial output and credit indebtedness of enterprises. With the help of appropriate econometric instruments, the following conclusions can be drawn: Firstly, the interest rate has not played any major part in "cooling" the economy. Neither is there any evidence of the exchange rate being able to support or divert a strong trend in industrial output growth. Secondly, both the interest rate and the exchange rate have had a crucial impact upon the maintenance or change of a weak growth trend in industrial output. Thus we face an asymmetric pattern of the respective instruments' influence upon real industrial output. Besides, the analysis of the relationship between the level of business activity, exchange rate, interest rate and long-term credit shows that in order to influence credit level effectively, monetary policy must take into consideration both the exchange rate and the situation in the currency market; balanced (predictable) changes in the dollar/zloty rate have enhanced credit demand.


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