Inflationary expectations are an important factor considered by the central bank in its choice of monetary policies, particularly under a direct inflationary target regime. Qualitative questionnaires provide a relevant source of knowledge of these expectations. The findings of the survey can subsequently be quantified. Basically, there exist two methods of quantification: the probabilistic and the regression method. The paper presents results obtained through the application of two variants of the probabilistic method to individuals´ expectations between 1992 and 1999, according to DEMOSKOP polling agency surveys. Assumptions of the regression method are also presented, although - due to the fact that the Polish questionnaires are not exhaustive enough - the method cannot be utilized to research inflationary expectations in Poland at this stage.

The distribution of answers and the resulting - through quantification - expected inflation rate - imply that individuals´ inflationary expectations are static: the rate of inflation expected in the next 12 months tends to equal the current rate. Whenever the disinflation process is disturbed, inflationary expectations rise much faster than the current inflation rate. The fact that individuals´ inflationary expectations are shaped in that way can lead to unwelcome macroeconomic consequences. Among others, it increases pressure on wages, which in turn can lead to higher cost of disinflation due to loss of output and employment. The central bank is thus prevented from affecting inflationary expectations directly. Any monetary decisions impact inflationary expectations only indirectly, through their effect on inflation itself. This involves a lag resulting from the length of the transmission mechanism.

When overall inflationary expectations are broken down by social group, it appears that a relatively higher inflation rate was expected by older, less educated respondents with lower incomes, whereas younger, better educated and better paid respondents expected lower inflation rates. Throughout the period in question, the gap between these two extreme groups narrowed. Within the respective segments of the sample, the rates of expected inflation tended to become more homogenous. In the recent period, the greatest range of inflationary expectations could be observed in the segment divided by per person income in the household.