Piotr G. Mielus Elements of portfolio analysis in the currency market
The paper presents examples of multi-currency portfolios in the foreign exchange market. The author used time series for the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty in the period 1996-1999. The objective of the analysis was to construct minimal-risk portfolios for, respectively, the Czech and the Polish markets. Both national currencies were for a certain period based on a basket of foreign currencies. The question the author seeks to answer is the following: would a portfolio comprising the same currencies, in the same proportion as the official basket minimize the variance? In both markets it proved possible to build minimal-variability portfolios (according to the historical data) whose structures differed from that of the official currency basket. The closing part of the paper describes the reaction of the two markets to the news of the currency basket being abolished. The situation in the Polish market is particularly interesting; after the zloty has been floated, the market will determine which currency relationship (USD/PLN or EUR/PLN) will be the central one, and which will result from the other.
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