Andrzej Wojtyna Disinflation costs (part II)
At the beginning of the second part of the article (part I was published in No. 12/1999 of the "Bank i Kredyt") findings of the empirical research were discussed. The first of the most fundamental trends focuses on an attempt to identify to what extent the Philips curve´s slope depends on the volatility of the aggregate demand (Lucas´s hypothesis), and to what extent on the average inflation level (Ball, Mankiw and Romer´s hypothesis). The second basic trend refers to the attempt to estimate so called sacrifice ratio. The next chapter is devoted to the most important trend of disinflation costs research in the 90´s. The trend aims to identify the effect of asymmetric (non-linear) nature of the Philips curve on disinflation costs. Among others, theoretical and empirical proposals of Filardo were considered, i.e. it was assumed that the specification adopted can be convex in one area and concave on the other. Therefore, it is possible to explain why the analysis of the non-linear nature of the Philips curve showed discrepant results. The last chapter discusses surprising findings arising from the investigation of a central bank´s independence influence on disinflation costs. It comes out that there is a strong evidence that the factor not only does not contribute to disinflation costs reduction but even makes them go up. The findings show that there is a need to search for other than the role of central bank´s accountability influence channels to explain a negative correlation between central bank´s independence and the level of inflation. However, up to now the research fail to confirm a positive effect of a changeover to direct inflation target as a factor reducing disinflation costs.
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