Jerzy Dudziński USD exchange rate versus directions of price changes in the international trade
The article analyses prices changes in the international trade in the 80´s and 90´s related to two basic factors: changes the world industrial production and USD exchange rate (as a base currency in which price ratios in the international trade are usually expressed). Findings of the analysis show that the level of prices in the international trade is rather stronger correlated with changes in USD exchange rate (in relation to SDR) than with changes in the world industrial production.
Due to the fact that international trade price movements depend first of all on the purchasing power of the base currency (rate), i.e. USD, we may sometime observe a decrease in prices in during the world economy upsurge (when the latter is accompanied by the base currency appreciation). A vice versa phenomenon may occur, i.e. an increase in prices during the economy´s downward tendency, which, in turn, arises from a decrease in USD exchange rate.
Due to the above considerations, directions of international trade price movements in the 90´s are difficult to interpret, since - despite traditional theory - sometimes international trade price movements are in contradiction to industrial production ratios (representing the situation of the world economy). At the same time the above mentioned situation makes in difficult for economic entities to analyze international trade price movements in terms of an informative function of prices.
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