Jan Kaczanowski
Prognosis of investment efficiency in open pension funds



The article analyses the efficiency of investment in open pension funds. Three series of simulations for three average inflation rates (4%, 8% and 12%) were made for the next 25 years. Each series comprises four simulations: simulation of saving in the Social Security Funds, simulation of saving in open pension funds - under an optimistic assumption of the rate of return; simulation of saving in open pension funds - under realistic assumptions related to their rate of return; and simulation of a hypothetical case of savings on 12-month bank deposits.

Assuming that in the future the average inflation rate will equal 8% and pension funds' charges will not exceed 7% of the capital accumulated, investment in open pension funds is profitable for individuals with 10.5 years left to retirement, and in case of an optimistic option - for individuals with 8.3 years left to retirement.


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